The researchers conclude, “Whether the unexpectedly low growth rates in Carbon dioxide emissions observed in 2014 and 2015 are a first sign of an approaching global peak in emissions is unclear”.
Advertisement
Earlier this year, new data showed that China had consumed substantially more coal in 2014 than earlier reported, causing big revisions to carbon calculations.
“These figures are certainly not typical of the growth trajectory seen since 2000 where the annual growth in emissions was between 2 and 3 percent”, said UEA’s Corinne Le Quéré, who is one of the authors of the study published in the journals Nature Climate Change and Earth System Science Data.
The report notes whether the slower growth in emissions will be sustained depends on China’s and other countries’ use of coal, as well as what sources countries are turning to to replace the lost generating capacity of the fossil fuel.
The drop in emissions surprised scientists and contrasted sharply to the accelerating growth of fossil fuel emissions, a key factor in global warming, in previous years. “This year we expect total emissions to flatten or drop slightly, despite strong growth in gross domestic product worldwide”.
Although China still relies on coal for 60% of its power needs, the government has been making heavy investments in solar, wind and other renewables over the past few years.
Michael Grubb, professor of worldwide energy and climate change policy at University College London, said: “The trend of rapid global emissions growth has been broken: this keeps 2 degrees C in play….There could hardly be better news to help the Paris conference in its final days”.
The reduced coal consumption in China has been found to be the major contributor to the projected reduction in carbon emissions.
The scientists involved believe that while the slowdown in emissions is welcome, albeit temporary, it could be a snapshot of the future if a deal can be done in Paris.
“It is unlikely that emissions have peaked for good”.
Dr Glen Peters, of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, said: “EU emissions went down about 200 million tonnes in 2014, which is about 6 per cent, which is quite impressive”. Industrialised countries plus China, accounting for half of global fossil fuel emissions, have pledged to reduce or stabilise emissions absolutely by 2030. “It should cheer anyone concerned that climate change might be insoluble, and encourage ministers meeting at the United Nations climate summit in Paris that pragmatic curbs on their carbon emissions are compatible with economic development”.
But what the study does suggest is that the historically reliable link between economic growth and emissions growth, which has existed since the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, can be broken.
Advertisement
At this critical time, when so much coal and coal seam gas expansion is planned in Australia, this film aims to expose the destructiveness of this industry to our communities and environment.
