The research firm also predicts that, for the first time ever, iPhone shipments will decrease compared to 2015, dropping from 232 million units shipped in 2015 to 227 million in 2016. The growth rate for this year was lowered due to a slowdown in smartphone shipments in mature markets and China. Windows Phone will see shipments decline 61.6% this year, and at a compounded rate of 25.2% from 2016-2020. The figure represents a significant slowdown from growth of 10.5 percent a year ago and 27.8 percent in 2014, said IDC, which updated its forecast to reflect the continued deceleration in China and mature markets, with Japan and Canada expected to contract by 6.4 percent and 6.9 percent.
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Consumers are holding on to their handsets longer as operators move away from contracts and toward equipment installment plans (EIPs) and leasing programs.
Shipments of smartphone are expected to touch 1.48 billion in 2016 and 1.84 billion in 2020. “Meanwhile, many retail heavy markets are seeing a surge in the eTailer channel, better known as online marketplaces”, IDC said. This is a major slide as smartphone shipments enjoyed 10.5 percent growth in 2015 and 27.8 percent in 2014.
To him, that means, “Consumers are having more say over which brands they want and at the same time able to bargain shop”.
While the overall market may be depressed, one area of continuing growth will be phablets, large screen smartphones that IDC defines as those with 5.5-inch displays or larger. The report said Windows will account for just 0.8 per cent of the market this year. “We are witnessing a plethora of vendors shifting their flagship devices towards the Phablet category as the average selling price for a Phablet will remain significantly higher than a regular smartphone ($383 vs. $260 in 2016) through the forecast period”.
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IDC adds that this “marks a pivotal moment” for Apple, but it is confident growth will return in 2017 and beyond, thanks in part to its early trade-in programs and the cost of entry-level iPhones like the iPhone SE. According to IDC, partner OEMs have been few and far between, and this announcement certainly won’t change that.
