The system still appeared disorganized, as it has all week, and its heaviest storms were located to the south and east of its center, the hurricane center said.
Advertisement
From there the hurricane center’s forecast outlook takes the system to the northwest toward the northern Gulf Coast.
The storm is centered about 1,225 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving northwest near 17 mph. There’s a 60 percent or “medium” chance the formation will organize over the next five days, which is down from 80 percent on Wednesday.
“Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba during the next couple of days”, said the advisory.
A second area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico is also being closely monitored, but now only has a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days. But the chance of the system strengthening into a tropical depression or tropical storm Saturday or Sunday is now just 30%. “Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend”.
Gaston’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from its center, and its tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
“The problem it’s had is a combination of dry air and wind shear”. Forecasters gave the system a mere 20 percent of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days.
Although the forecasts Friday are a relief, Grigsby said Louisiana residents need to keep the system in mind throughout the weekend and watch for updates.
Advertisement
Tropical Storm Gaston is moving northwestward in the Atlantic with no change in strength. At the time this image was taken, Gaston had maximum sustained winds near 60 miles per hour and was dumping copious amounts rain in North and SC. That’s much lower than the 80 percent chance given the system a few days ago.
