Invest 99L, the unnamed tropical mess rumbling through the Caribbean, continues its uncertain journey toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Advertisement
A hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the storm Friday morning. This system quickly became a tropical storm and then a hurricane, receiving the name Gaston.
A second area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico is also being closely monitored, but now only has a 10% chance of development over the next 5 days.
The National Hurricane Center now estimates the probability of this system becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours at 10 percent.
Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lester was expected to be upgraded to a hurricane by Saturday.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially estimated the Atlantic would see between 10 and 16 storms this year, but recently updated its prediction to 17. The system has maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and is not predicted to impact the continental U.S.
The two most statistically accurate forecast models have significant disagreement on just how strong it will become, and plenty of disagreement also exists among all the models about the possible path the system will take. This acts to weaken tropical systems by displacing thunderstorms away from the center of the storm.
At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Lester was 530 miles southwest of Baja California with sustained winds of 70 mph. The Hurricane Center guessed heavy rains and gusty winds were “probably occurring” over the Bahamas-rains and winds that likely spread to southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday.
Advertisement
The National Weather Service Charleston office does not expect any hazardous weather in the near future and low probability for widespread, hazardous weather through Thursday. However, data from the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the low is producing winds near 35 miles per hour east of the center. Aside from an increase in seas offshore and a few more showers and storms across the area Sunday into early next week, effects on the area will be minimal.
