The tropical wave between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast of Cuba remains unorganized but continues to blow toward Florida.
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Meanwhile, the central Atlantic saw hurricane Gaston quickly develop late on Wednesday before it was downgraded to a tropical storm. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gaston could re-intensify to a hurricane by tonight or on Saturday. At that point development into a tropical system is likely. That chance goes up to 60% as you look ahead to the next 5 days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by the weekend as the system approaches the central or northwest Bahamas.
Invest 99L could become a named tropical storm Thursday or Friday as it dumps heavy rains on Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. “Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend”.
With hurricane season ramping up, weather experts say they expect 2016 to be one of the most active seasons experienced in several years. Forecasters estimate only a 15 percent chance of a below-average season, as El Nino effects are weakening, leading to an environment more hospitable to tropical development.
Its long-term forecast, which includes a high level of uncertainty, shows it weakening Wednesday to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour as it nears the island.
Maximum sustained winds are being measured near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts being recorded, while tropical storm force winds are now extending outward up to 45 miles from the storm’s center.
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Tropical Storm Gaston was 1,586 miles east-southeast of Bermuda this afternoon and is still not considered a threat to the island. That’s much lower than the 80 percent chance given the system a few days ago. “This forecast will continue to change each day, so stay aware of the changes”.
