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Strong El Nino may mean mild winter in East Central Illinois

Mike Halpert of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center warned that one season of above-normal rain and snow “is very unlikely to erase four years of drought”, KTLA reported.

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El Nino is the name given to a climatological event that is marked by shifting winds contributing to unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. When temperatures in this region warm above average, this can create major weather pattern shifts across the globe, due to the ocean – air interactions that happen as a result of the warmer water.

The readings show that El Nino will be strong this year and that it will give California the kind of wet winter which they earlier saw in 1982-83 & 1997-98.

The Godzilla or “Bruce Lee” El Nino slated to arrive soon was deemed “significant and strengthening” during the most recent update from NOAA.

Unfortunately, a historical look at past years with similar El Niño conditions as now forecasted provide little guidance as to what California might expect this winter. Last month, San Diego and Los Angeles broke records for the wettest July ever, and a highway bridge washed out in a flash flood on Interstate 10 east of Palm Springs, while the Bay Area remained mostly sunny.

Some forecasters have said the El Niño could produce the worst storms parts of the West Coast have seen in decades.

“It’s important to bear in mind that the correlation between El Nino and precipitation are far from flawless, even in places with relatively high correlations such as Southern California and Arizona”, Werner said. “This is not a direct effect of El Nino, it’s more of a direct effect of global warming and climate change”.

El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. It’s developing now near the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is slated to pack a punch.

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Even with the anticipated El Nino, California still won’t be clear of the statewide drought.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen using Jason-2 data provided by Akiko Kayashi and Bill Patzert NASA  JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team. Data acquired April to July 2015