Officials at Fox News, which is sponsoring the debate next Thursday in Cleveland, say they will allow only 10 of the 17 major candidates to participate, based on their standing in five national opinion polls.
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It’s a four-way tie for fourth place – with pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Sen.
Democrats, meanwhile, have coalesced behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also suffers from overall negative approval ratings with the American people (40-51 favorable/unfavorable).
For the GOP nomination, U.S. Rep. David Jolly led with 10.3 percent. Ted Cruz.
As it now stands, Graham will not be able to be participate in the first marquee debate with the top 10 candidates, as the debate rules will only allow those polling in that threshold to participate. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Sen. Rick Santorum are tied at 1 percent and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, who entered the race this week, was at less than 1 percent. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, was really a war hero – is leading the other Republican candidates in the Real Clear Politics average of surveys with 18 percent.
Trump has made a big splash in two closely-watched states that vote early in the party primary process: New Hampshire and Iowa.
There was little ideological difference between Trump’s supporters and those of the rest of the field.
On the Democratic side, Clinton still is on top by a considerable margin.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also leads Trump by 8 points, 45-37 percent, while Bush edges Sanders out 44-39 and Walker has the lead 42-37.
As popular as he’s become, Trump also remains a polarizing figure nationally, with 30 percent of Republican voters saying they would “definitely not” support him – twice as many as those who say they could never back Christie (15 percent) or Bush (14 percent). (Biden has not indicated he is running, though he has not ruled it out.).
But there are warning signs for Hillary beyond the primary. Thirty-seven percent of the public view her as honest and trustworthy, while 57 percent – nearly as many as Trump – say she is not.
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Trump loses to Clinton 36 percent to 48 percent. It could signal that though Trump is leading Republican polls, he may fail to pick up voters who now prefer other candidates when they drop out of the race. But she would beat Trump by 12 points.
