Tens of thousands of Scottish nationalists are to fan out across Scotland, knocking on doors to find out if there is support for a new vote on independence that could make or break First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
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As a result, she said her programme for government “makes clear that we will consult on a draft Referendum Bill, so that it is ready for immediate introduction if we conclude that independence is the best or only way to protect Scotland’s interests”.
The SNP, funding the entire project itself, aims to have at least two million nuanced responses from Scotland’s 5.3 million population by November 30, Scotland’s national day via a survey and doorstep interviews.
Ms Sturgeon said she wanted to understand in detail how people feel about Europe, Brexit and independence and that the “wealth of information and insight” gathered would inform the next stage of the SNP’s campaign.
“By the end of this parliament we will have delivered 112 new or refurbished schools across every local authority in Scotland – more than double the number envisaged when the Schools for the Future programme started”.
The Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats have all pledged to oppose any move for a second referendum on the constitutional question.
“People in Scotland do not want another divisive referendum”.
The first minister “suspects” support for independence will be higher if the United Kingdom government doesn’t retain the country’s membership of the single market in its European Union negotiations, telling Theresa May she lacks mandate for a so-called “hard Brexit”.
Sturgeon now wants to gauge opinion on whether independence is a viable alternative again and under what terms, a person familiar with the plan told Reuters.
Her speech in Stirling on Friday morning took place nearly two years after the September 2014 referendum, which saw Scots vote by 55% to 45% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom.
Sturgeon has a de facto majority in Scotland’s parliament regarding independence because the Scottish Greens support her on that issue.
“This summer we witnessed seismic changes which will have a deep impact on our ambition for this country”, Sturgeon said. “The UK government can not say that in Ireland but then get away with saying the opposite here in Scotland”.
“Until the SNP and those more broadly in favour of independence can narrow that gap, they are always going to find it hard to get a majority of Scotland” to vote for independence, said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathcylde University.
“If she was really listening, she would know that rehashing the referendum debate will only add a further cloud of uncertainty over Scotland’s future at the time when we need a government dedicated to security and stability”.
A “hard Brexit” (outside the European Union single market) may provide the economic shock and the political mandate for the Scottish Government to press ahead with a second referendum.
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Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson said the country did not want to hear “more tub-thumping on independence” from the first minister.
