The latest intelligence indicates the Russia’s air fleet in Syria is made up of 34 fixed-wing aircraft and 16 helicopters. The plane was a Russian Airbus, and considering the increasingly problematic presence of the Islamic State in Egypt, the decision to attack this flight is certainly not one of coincidence. Without addressing Assad’s role in the crisis and planning for an alternative leadership, it will be hard to marshal the unity necessary to dislodge and replace him, and to establish a degree of stability in those regions of Syria not under IS influence, all of which are prerequisites to taking on that terrorist demon. “There should be a political mediation according to that perspective, which is the survival of President Assad and the Syrian regime”.
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The conflict in Syria involves three main combatants: the current Syrian government, various groups of rebels looking to overthrow them and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, commonly referred to as ISIS, which wants to overthrow the current government and establish a caliphate. But this means that Moscow must at a few point distance itself from supporting Assad only and occupy the niche of an influential but impartial arbiter.
Sixteen government loyalists and seven rebels were killed in the fighting.
A Russian deputy foreign minister said earlier this week that Moscow is aiming to host a round of talks between Syrian officials and opposition leaders next week.
FORD: Well, let’s see what the investigations come up with. After all, IS emerged amid the chaos created by the Assad regime’s brutal bombardment and destruction of Syrian cities and towns.
Russian Federation is carrying out bombing missions ostensibly focused on IS, and the USA will be sending 50 military “advisers” to provide on-the-ground assistance to the Syrians.
MARTIN: But is there any capacity left to do that? Bashar al-Assad’s government clearly has no capacity to do that.
The fighting suggests the Russians may run into the same reality as the 13-month-old American-led air campaign against the Islamic State group in Syria: Air power doesn’t automatically translate into victories on the ground. Is there any way in which your views have evolved as the situation has continued to go on? Now, fast-forward to 2015, it seems like a solution is going to be much harder to find. No time frame was set, but many Syrians are unlikely to accept a proposition that places Assad in power for the length of time it would take a shattered country and scattered people with no experience of democracy to properly prepare for free and fair elections.
We will be treated to the usual face-saving statements about how foundations are being built – not for a solution to the conflict, but for the next round of fruitless talks, and the one after, and so on, like a never-ending scaffolding manufactured to fortify a structure that simply does not exist. That unfortunate conference had excluded Iran at the insistence of the United States and its Sunni allies, even though several states without the slightest capacity to contribute anything to a peace settlement – as well as the Vatican – were among the 40 non-Syrian invited participants.
The Lowy Institute Analysis Looking for leadership in the Arab Middle East by Rodger Shanahan was published 30 October.
“What changed for us was the huge, abnormal size, and intensity of the bombardment”, said Abu Ahmed, using his nom de guerre and speaking via a web-based messaging system.
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FORD: Thank you, my pleasure.
