She will only adjust her course after experiencing twists and turns – if not major difficulties – in Taiwan’s relations with the US, Japan and mainland China.
Advertisement
Taiwan’s current president Ma Ying-Jeou had led the island, which mainland China views as a Chinese province destined for an inevitable future return to mainland governance, to strengthen its ties with Beijing; Tsai’s election means that policy may soon change.
Denny Roy, an Asia security specialist at the East-West Center in Hawaii, says Beijing’s reaction suggests that a DPP victory, in itself, is not unacceptable to China’s leaders.
That could foster political instability between China and Taiwan – something that Washington does not wish to see.
DPP Chairwoman and President-elect Tsai Ing-wen proposed “three nos” for the Legislature’s speaker and deputy speaker at the DPP Central Standing Committee meeting, which were reported to the media by DPP spokesman Ruan Jhao-syong. A graduate of Cornell University and the London School of Economics, she served as chair of the Mainland Affairs Council between 2000 and 2004 and was the main driver of reform within the DPP after its electoral defeat in 2008.
Moreover, polling suggests a shift in underlying attitudes that fueled today’s vote.
“…We’ll raise our military deployment, and at the same time we’ll deal with it via reasonable dialogue with the Chinese side”. Before the ceremony, China will likely put pressure on the United States and Taiwan for Tsai to clarify her position on what’s known as the “1992 Consensus”, says Ms. Rigger of Davidson College.
China has been watching the elections carefully; Beijing does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.
Tsai’s top advisers emphasize that she has avoided confrontation with “big brother” across the Taiwan Strait as well as with the rival KMT and resurgent new parties at home. The chance of either worst case scenario occurring is very low.
“What they are saying is that something close to “One China” has to come out of Tsai Ing-wen’s mouth eventually”, says Shelley Rigger, a professor at Davidson College in North Carolina who studies Taiwanese politics.
Although Tsai was expecting a victory all along, after official campaigning activities had ended by 10 pm on Friday night, Taiwanese K-pop singer Chou Tzu-yu’s apology video upload has been compared by some netizens to the “two bullets” which clinched Chen Shui-bian’s victory in 2004, carrying over to the next day’s elections.
After a smooth, well-run campaign, Tsai won 56 percent of the vote, easily besting her nearest rival, the KMT’s Eric Chu, who took 31 percent of the 12 million ballots cast. But perhaps mindful of how important China has become to the hazardous Taiwanese economy, Tsai has also vowed to maintain the “status quo”. Such a process would ensure that the present level of interaction will continue, and thus, build confidence. She is far too wise to provoke Beijing by declaring independence.
What are the implications for the U.S.?
Vice Premier Chang San-cheng will take over as head of the Cabinet until Ma accepts the resignation and settles on a new lineup after consulting with the DPP.
China and many global observers had repeatedly warned that a DPP victory could seriously jeopardize the warm and peaceful cross-strait relations that China-friendly KMT had established over the past eight years. He was willing to adhere to China’s principles and yet maintain his own.
He said a new public opinion has been formed.
Advertisement
A month and a half later, the Obama administration approved the first USA arms sales to Taiwan in four years.
