If opposition leader, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the election and her party also gains control of the legislature, it would be the first time the KMT and its associates have lost power of parliament as well as the presidency.
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Taiwan edged toward historic change Saturday, as voters headed to the polls in an election that could install the island’s first female president and oust the party that has overseen warming ties with mainland China.
Indeed, the Ma administration likely deserves more credit than it receives for the accomplishments of its two terms in office.
Tsai’s main opponent is Eric Chu of the ruling KMT, which has forged closer ties with China under President Ma Ying-jeou.
However, DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s approval ratings rose the day after the presidential meeting in Singapore, leading many to predict that the island’s voters are too deeply anxious by the prospect of closer ties with the mainland to vote KMT on Saturday. Beijing takes to mean it wants independence.
Opinion polls predict a crushing defeat for the ruling Nationalists, or Kuomintang (KMT), their candidate Eric Chu Li-luan trailing far behind Tsai in the presidential race.
DPP executives say that they have taken note of the United States’ concern of Taiwan’s post-election situation.
Despite the recent billion-dollar arms deal with Taiwan, “the overall trend is reduced [US] arms sales to Taiwan, not more”, Kan said.
Tsai has also been careful not to push Beijing’s buttons with inflammatory rhetoric.
The emergence of two governments in China, both claiming sovereignty over the entire nation dates back to 1949 and the civil war in the country which preceded communist takeover.
But it was the plight of a teenage Taiwanese K-pop star that dominated local news coverage Saturday, with presidential candidates drawn into the row.
China hoped that would set an important precedent and offered extraordinary concessions to make it happen, including agreeing not to use formal titles or have Chinese flags in the room.
At stake are relations with an ascendant and increasingly assertive China under President Xi Jinping.
China isn’t spoiling for yet another crisis, with a stock market in free-fall, sharpening maritime disputes, an ongoing campaign against corruption and unrest among Uighur Muslims in the northwestern Xinjiang region. China’s armed forces are 2.3 million strong while Taiwan has about 215,000 full-time troops.
“It’s something that China is observing to see what Taiwan is doing with the USA”, he added.
Beijing could initially suspend contacts between the bodies tasked with negotiating trade and travel agreements.
She returned to Taiwan to teach law and began advising the KMT government on worldwide trade and China policies.
Beijing will “test Tsai and if it concludes that Tsai is ‘responding inappropriately, ‘ it will get more negative”, said Steve Tsang, senior fellow at the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute.
TIME reported other stark differences divide mainland Chinese views and those of the Taiwanese who are to vote in the upcoming elections.
Even less likely is that Beijing would mobilize its army in an attempt to intimidate Tsai and the Taiwanese public.
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In stark contrast with her DPP predecessor Chen Shui-bian, analysts believe Tsai is unlikely to rekindle the tension that once alarmed the two major powers on both sides of the Pacific because of her credentials as a negotiator before and since her entry into politics.
