Whatever dealings go down between Xi and Trump at Mar-a-Lago, they’ll have to happen somewhere else.
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What worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign leaders experienced awkward moments with the new US president. The agenda will include urgent items such as North Korea’s rising aggression and nuclear capabilities and China’s controversial trade practices.
“The meeting next week with China will be a very hard one in that we can no longer have massive trade deficits”, Trump wrote on Twitter. As that danger nears, Trump’s diplomacy with Xi will only grow in importance. He has pledged to reverse decades of decline in coal mining, which now accounts for fewer than 75,000 U.S.jobs.
Diplomatic and economic measures taken to rein in North Korea’s missile programme have not had the desired effect, a senior USA military commander said on Thursday after the North’s latest test triggered a flurry of calls among world leaders. By partitioning the debate over North Korea’s nuclear program from debates about human rights, regime change or Korean reunification, policymakers may be able to achieve a nonproliferation deal acceptable to all parties, including to China.
Xi is arriving at the resort with a gift-basket of “tweetable deliverables”, sources say, peace offerings on Trump’s signature issues – trade and jobs – that he hopes will smooth over a relationship that began on shaky ground following disagreements over Taiwan.
President Trump risks an embarrassing blunder if he doesn’t tone down his rhetoric on China’s currency when he comes face to face with President Xi Jinping.
In China’s capital, Trump’s public statements doubting that human activity is the primary cause of global warming are greeted with a mixture of bemusement and worry.
But over time, the Trump administration may consider changes to the Obama administration’s currency definitions as the Treasury gains staff.
Trump has accused China of not taking an active enough role in addressing provocation from the North, while Beijing maintains it has enforced sanctions against Pyongyang leveled by the United Nations. His government has built artificial reefs to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea and retaliated against South Korea for allowing the U.S. to install a missile-defense system to protect against North Korea, a Chinese ally. The “pivot” rattled China and drove a more aggressive foreign policy. The Chinese are reluctant, however, to exert economic pressure that would destabilize its isolated neighbor and fears any effort that might lead to a US -allied unified Korea on its border. So can Trump succeed where his predecessors have failed?
“Of course, once you make that declaratory policy, everything follows”, Cha said, noting that North Korea would likely respond by pushing the envelope. He faces some disadvantages.
“It is not evident, however, that the Trump administration is either ready or inclined to this approach, particularly given the president’s tweet about the summit”, the analysis said.
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That may have been true in the past, but despite plenty of evidence that it’s no longer a fair criticism, Trump won’t let the issue drop. The sheer number of challenges facing the world today can not be resolved without China and the USA working together. “I think he may end up being too soft”, Lord said.
