Two conflicting political polls released Monday said there are two Republican front-runners in Iowa, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
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Ted Cruz has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a Monmouth University survey of Iowa Republicans released Monday.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that’s outside the margin of error.
Trump now leads the field with the support of 32 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Rubio at 14 percent, with Christie at 9 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7 percent, U.S. Sen.
The share of New Hampshire Republican voters naming this issue as their top concern has more than doubled following the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, increasing from 21 percent in September and 19 percent in June.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who has emerged as Trump’s biggest rival in the first caucus state of Iowa, was in sixth place with 6 percent. “As Ben Carson’s stock has fallen, Cruz has been able to corral most of those votes”, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. He commands 36% support among this group, compared to 20% for Trump, 17% for Carson, and 11% for Rubio. CNN, by contrast, compiled its sample of “likely” caucus goers by asking Iowa adults about their intention to participate in the caucuses, their interest in the news about the caucuses and past participation.
“Number two, [we need someone] who says we will defeat ISIS, we’re going to carpet bomb them in oblivion, we’re going to arm the Kurds, we’re going to go and find them and hunt them down and kill them”.
Cruz responded to one reporter when asked if he thought that Donald Trump would target him now that he had pulled into the lead in Iowa.
Trump’s numbers ticked up slightly from October, when the same poll of national voters found the real estate mogul on top at 23 percent. All the other candidates were in single digits.
His fortunes have changed, however, after a critical endorsement from a popular Republican lawmaker in this heartland state, and as voters cool on retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, an earlier favorite.
The support of the “faithful” or evangelical voters, who make up a strong majority of Iowa caucusgoers, may be key to Cruz’s performance in the February 1 caucuses.
Cruz has been getting more attention in Iowa lately. Cruz, in 2nd position, gained 9 points.
“Some of those people may be going to (Cruz)”, Grassley said.
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While I think it’s early to declare Cruz a front-runner, I believe that the Monmouth University poll methodology is better suited for determining the outcome of the Iowa Republican Caucuses than the CNN/ORC poll methodology is.
