Depending on which survey you read on Monday, businessman Donald Trump either is increasing his lead for the Republican presidential nomination in the first caucus state of Iowa or has fallen behind Texas Sen.
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The poll finds a markedly different landscape among potential GOP caucusgoers than another Iowa poll released Monday by Monmouth University. “Cruz, of Texas, finished first among 14 Republican candidates in the poll of 283 influential party activists gathered for the Minnesota GOP’s State Central Committee, claiming 90 votes”.
In October, Carson held the lead with the evangelical voting bloc, getting 36 percent support. Retired physician Ben Carson comes in third at 16 percent, while Sen.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio polls at 17 percent and Ben Carson takes fourth place with 13 percent.
Cruz has been on the rise recently, and his performance in the Monmouth poll was better than in late October, the last time the West Long Branch, New Jersey-based poll surveyed Iowa Republicans.
Cruz gets 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus goers, a significant lead over Trump’s 19 percent. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush’s 10 percent support has evaporated to less than 4 percent as he joined a group of candidates in single digits who would barely qualify for the December 15 debate if only judged by national polls.
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party.
The CNN/ORC poll was conducted before and after the San Bernardino shooting occurred, whereas the Monmouth poll was conducted last week after the shooting.
As Vox’s Andrew Prokop reminds us, Trump thrives on media attention.
Trump was a curious sideshow in June – astonishing in the things he would say but clearly not a contender (or so we all said).
“The tale of the tape here for Donald Trump is how many independents can he get to show up”, said Murray.
Cruz’s fundraising prowess has enabled his campaign to add more field staff in Iowa and the senator himself has hit the ground harder, making five trips to the Hawkeye State in the past month and a half. To be more specific, they need an average of 3.5% or bigger nationally, at least 4% in Iowa or at least 4% in New Hampshire.
Along with Carson’s decline, Cruz has also picked up steam since earning the endorsement of conservative Iowa Congressman Steve King.
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Trump’s a loose cannon and a sour blend of contradictions whose implosion still seems inevitable, even if it hasn’t occurred as quickly as many predicted. One bill would put a three-year suspension on resettlement of refugees from countries with a substantial Islamic State or al-Qaeda presence – which are mostly majority-Muslim countries.
