The Almanac’s forecasting formula for predicting winter weather has been a well-kept secret, ever since the editor Robert B. Thomas oversaw the publishing of the original almanac in 1792. Almanac staffers have reportedly stated that the most significant errors in the year-long weather forecast stemmed from underestimating how above normal the snowfall would be in Boston and how high above normal temperatures were going to be in California last year. It should not to be confused with The Farmers’ Almanac, which is published in Lewiston and due out next week. Those the closely-guarded formula has been refined throughout the Almanac’s 224-year history, critics say it is unscientific and fails to account for pressure systems, cyclical weather patterns, and climate change. The Pacific Northwest will reportedly be subjected to its snowiest weather from mid-December through the middle of January – or possibly even late February. For the South, including parts of drought-weary Southern California, NOAA says rain and, for those states in the more northern or the southern latitudes, possibly a bit of snow.
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“[Weather forecasting] is a rigorous and quantitative science steeped in physics, advanced math, fluid dynamics and thermodynamics”, Shepherd wrote in a piece for Forbes. “Media fascination with predictions from almanacs or groundhogs perpetuates this perception”. With its tendency to introduce warmer weather to the Western U.S., El Niño is expected to introduce a milder winter this year than the country has experienced for the past two years.
“What we really do is predict the deviations from the normal or averages for an area for the season”, she said.
The Huffington Post reports that the Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for below-normal temps and above-normal snow levels for New England.
“I really don’t see anything right now that tilt the odds one way or the other”, he said.
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They’re studying the likelihood that a strong El Niño – the periodic warming of ocean water in the central Pacific that influences temperatures and precipitation worldwide – will continue through the winter and spring. “It’s about as oppressively humid as it can get in Maine”.
