Our American Muslim neighbors are our first line of defense.
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Americans’ worries about the country’s trajectory are not new.
So, I did just get here last night, but I think it’s safe to say that everybody in the state of Iowa, including the majority of people here who will not be participating in the caucuses Monday night, is very aware there’s a presidential race under way. Dean’s meltdown was solidified with his hysterical screaming rant in the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses and Kerry went on to win the nomination fairly easily.
A heavier-than-usual turnout determined the results of the Democratic caucuses in 2008, when Barack Obama handed a humiliating defeat to Hillary Clinton. What makes the Iowa caucus unique is the way the delegates are selected. But both have touched a raw nerve, and our political parties had better pay attention.
On the Democratic side, what was supposed to be a fairly predictable contest, Hillary Clinton presumed to be the front-runner, has faced a really stiff challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders.
These trends, while shocking on the national scale, are commonplace in Iowa.
For Democrats, registrations are down in 13 of 15 counties as of Wednesday, compared to 2008, the party’s last contested caucus.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Merz said afterward she doesn’t think Hillary Clinton has credibility. Despite being in the Senate, Cruz is loathed by most GOP leaders and has aligned himself with Republicans who believe party elites made lofty promises to win the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, then ignored the will of the voters who drove those victories.
A caucus is more than just a vote; like Yepsen said, it’s a meeting. A recent Quinnipiac poll of Iowa Democrats likely to caucus shows women overall back Clinton 54 to 40 percent. In 2012, when Obama was running for re-election, only 25,000 Democrats caucused, while the number of Republicans was little changed.
For what it’s worth, I’m expecting Trump and Clinton to leave Iowa as the winners. The surprising development of the 2016 campaign is the degree to which a large segment of Democratic voters, at least in the early voting states, appear to have forgotten or rejected that lesson. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won in Iowa.
It’s easy to accept Iowa’s role in presidential elections for what it is. “And I’m guessing if you talk to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, my guess is that they’re not going to have a problem”. With all the hype and strong polling numbers around Donald Trump, Iowa will give us the first clue whether the NY real-estate magnate has been able to convert this support into actual votes.
After all, a combined $129 million in television and radio advertising by the campaigns and outside groups backing more mainstream candidates – Florida Sen.
Another difference in the Democrat process is that while you have to be a registered Democrat, it is possible to register as a Democrat on the caucus night itself. When it comes to Iowa, polls suggest Trump will be victorious, but statistician Nate Silver begs to differ. “These volunteers are fanning out to knock on doors and make calls to encourage Iowans to caucus for Hillary”, de Blasio spokeswoman Marti Adams Baker told the Post when asked about the volunteer contingent.
Voters aren’t voting for a candidate directly.
As individuals, Sanders and Trump are hardly cut from the same cloth; one rails against billionaires and one is a billionaire. He’s also eschewed most of the trappings of modern presidential campaigns, including super PACs and other high-dollar fundraising, which has only strengthened his appeal with voters who distrust career politicians.
This will be a major problem for Trump, whose key demographic is unregistered and unreliable voters who, due to his more audacious policy suggestions, will see Cruz as a less radical alternative. When this happens, eloquent and personable candidates will shine while loud and sound bite-heavy candidates will find themselves in an adapt-or-die scenario.
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These daily digests – Politico’s Illinois Playbook is notably robust; Crain’s Chicago Business is launching Crain’s on Politics on Monday morning – have become increasingly valuable in our information-saturated age, a better way to be sure you’re caught up than following even the best curated Twitter feed.
