Although Stein and Johnson are only cutting into Clinton’s lead slightly, the numbers are consistent, and could prove to be a headache for Clinton later in the race.
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But given the unpopularity of Trump and Clinton, it is possible Americans will be searching for an alternative candidate to vote for this fall. “I’m going to vote for the Libertarian candidate”. Stein and Johnson claimed the Commission and the Republican and Democratic National Committees conspired to monopolize access to the presidential debates “market” by excluding candidates polling at less than 15 percent of the vote. However, support for third-party candidates in early campaign preference polls often greatly overstates the support they receive on Election Day, according to Gallup. That’s compared to just 20 percent who say the same thing about the Green Party’s Jill Stein. By this standard, only two other candidates qualify: Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
So, the obvious result would be a huge third-party surge, right? Only Ralph Nader in 2000 had significantly higher favorable (42%) than unfavorable (22%) ratings, in a year when he won almost 3% of the national popular vote. He could become the escape-hatch choice for a lot of people November 8 – if he’s included in the autumn presidential debates.
Sixty-three percent of Americans said they have no opinion of Johnson, while 19 percent view the former New Mexico Governor favorably and 18 percent view him unfavorably.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are expected to make the cut.
And while Johnson’s decision to add Weld to his ticket surely reflects his effort to move the Libertarians to the political mainstream, that party spends as much time arguing internally about what it stands for as it does wooing general election voters. Now, the Republican candidate is down to just his most avid supporters.
About 1.6 million total viewers tuned in, a big uptick from the 929,000 who watched the first Libertarian town hall televised by CNN back in June.
In the meantime, Johnson and Stein have gotten considerably greater media attention than any third-party candidates since 2000.
As long as they remain lesser-known, the record indicates Johnson and Stein will not be significant factors in the 2016 election. Bruce Fein, the lawyer who drafted the lawsuit, hoped that a judge would see the private CPD as a gatekeeper for millions of dollars in free publicity, and its 15 percent polling threshold as a threat to the First Amendment.
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And while observers were not surprised that the court dismissed the challenge, the judge’s rationale raised some questions about the role that the media plays in crafting the current two-party system.
