Though the entire non-farm US economy posted its best monthly jobs gain since May, “manufacturing’s failure to add any positions at all pushed the sector into its first jobs recession since the sector hit its last absolute employment bottom – in February and March of 2010”, said Alan Tonelson, who founded the RealityChek blog and covers manufacturing and broader economic issues.
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The United States unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. With markets having swung in just a few weeks from pricing out a Fed interest rate hike next month to a strong likelihood it will take place, however, economic releases in the coming week may be judged simply as supporting evidence. “Unless next month’s payroll number really falls flat – it seems all but a certainty”. The poor payrolls growth seen in those months had fueled doubts among investors that the Fed would raise rates this year, even though Yellen has signaled she believed a hike would be appropriate before the year ends.
Central bankers have been saying job creation needs to slow.
Is it real? The job growth, we mean.
“The three-month average is 187,000”, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS, an economic analysis company.
Friday’s report from the government suggested that the US economy is rebounding after a worrisome summer and is continuing to outshine most other major economies.
“This report cancels fears of weakness rather than exhibiting raw strength”.
Julie Young is a financial journalist with comprehensive experience in the financial services industry. The average 30-year conforming rate was 3.99 percent yesterday, having increased 9 basis points in one week due to the consensus view of a strong, but not this strong, employment report.
“Today’s job report will influence the long-term bond market, so mortgage rates will increase in response”, Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com, said in a statement.
“That’s bad news for our economy”.
That pushed the dollar sharply higher against the euro on optimism the U.S. economy may be stirring out of a fitful, uneven expansion into something more vigorous.
Yellen and her fellow policymakers will meet December 15-16.
“In past recovery, a 3.5 to 4.5 percent rise would have been what you would have been accustomed to”, he said.
Oil prices fell as much as 2 percent on Friday, posting their third weekly decline in four, on pressure from a rallying dollar and higher interest rate expectations after strong U.S.jobs growth in October.
“This might encourage people to add another side dish at Thanksgiving and possibly upgrade to oyster stuffing”, he said. “We check off a number of good news boxes”.
In other energy trading, heating oil rose less than a cent to $1.49 a gallon, wholesale gasoline futures rose a penny to $1.37 a gallon and natural gas rose 0.7 cent to $2.371 per 1,000 cubic feet.
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In addition to the unexpectedly stronger job gains last month, data for August and September were revised to show 12,000 more jobs created than previously reported.
