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Treasury yields little changed as traders await Yellen

The stock was the primary drag on the consumer staples index .SPLRCS , which edged 0.1 percent lower.

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“The big surprise (at Jackson Hole) would be a hawkish shift from Yellen which would be enough to rock the boat on risk and send US rates and the dollar sharply higher”, said Brad Bechtel, managing director at Jefferies in NY.

Investors are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Yellen’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which could clarify the US central bank’s thinking on whether it plans to hike interest rates for the first time this year at its September meeting or continue to hold off. “While I don’t expect Yellen to provide much rate guidance in Jackson Hole, I think she will echo Fischer’s upbeat assessment of the USA economy”.

The dollar briefly slipped below 100 yen earlier before recovering to 100.21 yen late Tuesday, down 0.1 percent.

That means a slow climb for rates, particularly at the shorter-dated end of the yield curve, which is more sensitive to Fed moves, as investors prepare to for another quarter-point rise, he said.

Data on Tuesday showed new US single-family home sales unexpectedly rose in July, reaching their highest level in almost nine years as demand increased broadly, brightening the housing market outlook.

There may still be a USA rate hike in 2016.

In focus later on Tuesday will be the first of this week’s reports on USA inventories, which analysts expect will show a decline in crude and gasoline stocks.

Futures markets were pointing to positive restart for Wall Street having ended little changed on Monday.

The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar against the currency of other countries, declined 0.2% to 85.49 after the currency fell against the euro, pound, and yen.

A survey of Japanese manufacturing activity for August showed output rose for the first time in six months, but the improvement was marginal and investors fixed their focus on the Fed instead.

Economic news: Data out on Tuesday will be closely watched for any indication they weaken or strengthen the case for a Fed interest rate hike.

“But in reality, the response has been very muted”.

Benchmark 10-year yields haven’t closed above 1.6 percent since June 23, the day the United Kingdom voted on its membership of the European Union. German Bund yields nudged up as well along with the rest of the euro zone and UK Gilts.

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As of 9 a.m. on August 23, the Fed Fund futures predict an 18% probability of a rate hike in September, 25% in November and 50% in December.

'You can talk all you want but let's face it In the last seven years we have had one measly 25-basis-point hike. Show me the money' said Don Ellenberger a portfolio manager at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh