The National Hurricane Center now give the system – located between the Bahamas and Cuba’s northeast coast and moving west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour – a 30 percent chance of development over the next two days, and 60 percent chance over the next five.
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Models released by the NHC show the storm – now designated Invest 99L – headed toward South Florida, with the potential to cross over the state into the Gulf of Mexico. This means there is less of a threat for direct landfall and possible tropical storm in Florida.
Thursday morning the low was producing gale-force winds over water to the north of Hispaniola, but the low continues to lack a well-defined center. This system has a low, 20% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it pushes west northwestward.
The National Hurricane Center believes that this tropical wave has 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm later this week and will move across central and eastern Bahamas.
First was Tropical Storm Fiona, which moved harmlessly through the central Atlantic and dissipated earlier this week.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, several rivers in Louisiana remain in flood stage, the Lower Mississippi Valley River Forecast Center said. Intensity forecasts have large uncertainties at this time, but most of the projections keep the system as a tropical storm across Florida. It is expected to slow down over the Bahamas amid more favorable conditions for growth before approaching Florida. It now stands at a 30% chance of development over the next two days and if it holds together it goes up to 60% over the next five days. The National Hurricane Center is encouraging Florida residents to monitor the storm closely as heavy rains and gusty winds could begin as early as this weekend.
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Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gaston is still churning out in the Atlantic Ocean, headed away from land, but it may strengthen back into a hurricane Friday night or Saturday, forecasters said.
