There is much uncertainty over what 99L will be at that point – a tropical wave or a named storm.
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After it emerges from the adverse environment, Gaston is expected to further strengthen.
At 2 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said the wave will encounter “marginally conducive” conditions for development “over the next couple of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 miles per hour”. Over the next 5 days… there is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone forming. There are still the possibilities of turns to the south or east of South Florida but those likely wouldn’t occur until Friday or Saturday, if they occur at all. Another hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow… if necessary. Dubbed 99L, that system has the potential to become Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Hermine late this week, according to Accuweather.
While Fiona spins towards its inevitable destruction, Tropical Storm Gaston has formed and is expected to become a hurricane.
And the chances that what’s called a tropical wave will grow into a unsafe storm during the next 48 hours are now just 40 percent, National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen told NBC News. A broad area of low pressure is located 347 nautical miles south southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Forecasters are giving the system a 50 percent chance of formation through the next two days and a 70 percent chance of formation over the next five days.
That more storms are coming is nearly a certainty; the question is whether the United States will continue to enjoy a period of record hurricane luck.
Meanwhile, about 1,000 miles due east of Miami, Fiona is barely holding on as a tropical depression over open water in the northern mid-Atlantic. We continue to watch a tropical wave that is approaching the Caribbean.
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“As we see a more well-defined center of circulation, the computer models will begin to agree and we will have a better idea on the system’s intensity and track”.
