Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of days, as the system moves west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said.
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The system will move through the area as a typical tropical wave, with an increase in easterly breezes especially on Sunday, and higher rain chances from Sunday into the first part of next week.
While the forecast for Florida remained in flux, the system is likely to have a significant impact in the Caribbean over the weekend.
Residual rain is likely to affect Central Florida next week, but the National Hurricane Center said there is only a 60 percent chance that the system will be able to form into an organized storm in the next five days. Nearly all of the computer models indicate the best chance of rain will remain offshore.
The system, which never managed to organize itself well enough to become Tropical Storm Hermine, has almost fizzled out north of Cuba. Whenever there is wind shear, it tends to cut off showers and storms from growing stronger.
The disturbance continues to move northwest toward south Florida with arrival in our area later this weekend into Monday of next week. “It’s been fortunate we don’t have something forming”.
“There’s really no change in the disturbance overnight”, said Meteorologist Alek Krautmann of the National Weather Service in New Orleans. Until Invest 99-L actually develops into a tropical depression or storm the computer models will continue to have a hard time with the forecast. There is still a chance that this may never develop at all, but that remains to be seen; so we must continue to monitor its progress. Central North Pacific warnings are issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic warnings by the US National Hurricane Center.
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Meantime, a second disturbance has appeared in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane center said that Gaston could even become a major hurricane (Category 3 or above).
