Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains are associated with the system, with the potential to cause flash flooding. While Gaston is not headed our way the three tropical systems are expected to influence weather in the U.S.
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A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center. We will likely see an increase in tropical moisture across our area especially for the first few days of next week, and this will lead to an increase in coverage of showers and storms across the area.
“Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend”, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It was located about 595 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 12 mph.
Early Thursday Gaston became the third named hurricane of the Atlantic season, but weakened to a tropical storm later in the day.
A separate area of disturbed weather in the northern Gulf is not expected to develop further before reaching he coast of Texas over the weekend.
This graphic shows the five day projected track and intensity of Tropical Depression 14E. The National Hurricane Center continues to decrease the chances for development as it battles wind shear, which is effectively tearing the storm apart as it tries to organize. However, data from the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the low is producing winds near 35 miles per hour east of the center.
Conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next two days as the system moves west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour.
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Forecasters caution the margin of error in computer models for storms more than 5 days away is 170 miles in either direction. Development will be slow due to dry air that the system will encounter, the National Hurricane Center said.
