It is expect to regain hurricane strength by Saturday.
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The Biloxi-based Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters that are based in Biloxi are flying into Invest 99-L from St. Croix, Virgin Islands, to help the National Hurricane Center determine whether Invest 99 has the potential to develop into a tropical system. Even the European model, which for six straight runs over the course of three days insisted on a strong tropical storm or hurricane hitting Miami, has backed off big time.
It is most likely Gaston’s center will remain east of Bermuda as it approaches that latitude by early next week. But so far the low remains disorganised and with little in the way of circulation to deserve naming at this stage.
However, given the circumstances this time, the system could become Tropical Depression Eight, followed by a tropical storm at any time this week.
If the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, a landfall along the upper Gulf coast of the U.S.as a hurricane would be a possibility during the middle part of next week.
The path of Invest 99L has always been more certain, with it tracking along the edge of the Caribbean and forecasters saying Florida was in its sights as long ago as Monday.
On Thursday, the disturbance was unorganized and moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Weather officials estimate the tropical system, now known as Invest 99-L, will hit the Bahamas by Friday and could arrive in South Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday or Monday. The tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles and has an 80 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone.
Let us first take a look at Tropical Storm Gaston. The ECMWF has a history of being more reliable with tropical activity, when compared to the GFS model.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially estimated the Atlantic would see between 10 and 16 storms this year, but recently updated its prediction to 17. Winds are sustain just below the hurricane threshold at about 70 miles per hour and gusts as high as 85 miles per hour.
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“The timing of this turn and how far (the storm) might make it into the Gulf of Mexico is uncertain, though the Florida Gulf Coast is now the area of the Gulf Coast considered to be most at risk by the models”, they said.
