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Tropical wave affecting the BVI
A tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea, although current forecast models show it staying well south of Florida.
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A tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system could sling a little more in the way of tropical moisture our way next weekend, but that remains to be seen.
The first system is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Although showers and thunderstorms are fairly well-organized, there are now no signs a closed surface circulation.
That system – designated Invest 96-L – is expected to continue moving westward at 10 to 15 miles per hour, and development is unlikely due to unfavourable upper-level winds, forecasters say. These conditions should spread westward across the central Caribbean Sea and reach Hispaniola by Monday and Jamaica and Cuba by Tuesday.
This wave is being given a 40 percent chance for development in the next 2 days, and 70 percent beyond that.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the second tropical wave and a low pressure system centered about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has changed little in organization.
There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, one of them with a high chance of becoming a storm this week.
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Looking ahead beyond this week, the moisture across the Gulf Coast and instability may creep upward keeping a good chance of daily storms with us for next weekend and perhaps, for a good part of the following week.