Computer model runs for the Puerto Rico storm have shifted somewhat more to the north, suggesting that after reaching Florida it could stay inland or close to it and move up the Southeast.
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A tropical weather system in the Atlantic has not yet earned a name, but it’s already bringing the threat of flooding, mud slides and damaging winds to the Caribbean, WYFF News 4 Meteorologist Chris Justus said. That hurricane’s path is expected to continue through Friday, although it is forecast to weaken during the next day or so.
With that in mind, the National Hurricane Center dropped the chance for development in the short term to 50 percent, while keeping the probability that a depression or storm will form over the Bahamas by the weekend to 80 percent.
Recall that previous year, Erika struggled with the large islands in the Caribbean and diminished upon interacting with Hispaniola.
However, given the circumstances this time, the system could become Tropical Depression Eight, followed by a tropical storm at any time this week. It is forecast to become stronger and hit the soaked Gulf Coast and Florida in just a few days. So far this season – globally – the GFS has had tendency to be too early with movement to the north then east on tropical systems, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction to the west. Rip currents will also increase in strength and number.
Satellite imagery is showing a disruption in particularly the northern portion of the tropical wave due strong shear but there has been a flare-up of thunderstorms again with flooding rains for parts of Haiti & the Dominican Republic while rain eases over Puerto Rico.
Depending on the strength of 99L, there is the possibility of power outages and property damage from gusty winds and flooding.
Ocean waters could become very risky, especially for small craft and cruise ships from the northeastern coast of Cuba through much of the Bahamas during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The hurricane center issued a special advisory just before midnight Thursday that said data from a NOAA/NASA Global Hawk drone indicated Gaston’s winds had strengthened to 75 miles per hour, making it a Category 1 hurricane. For example, locate storm shutters and make sure the generator is operational.
Because of this, 99L could be steered into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
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Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lester is strengthening far off Mexico’s coast.
