The latest figures show a dramatically tightening race from a little less than a month ago, when Clinton’s chance of winning was estimated to be at 80 percent and Trump’s at 19.7 percent.
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The Democratic National Convention begins Monday in Philadelphia against the backdrop of the Republican Party coalescing around its virulent hatred for Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Given the poll’s credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race.
The poll also indicates that the convention deepened the educational divide among white voters. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40 per cent to 40 per cent split to a 44 per cent to 39 per cent edge over Trump.
The survey revealed Mr Trump is now significantly more trusted on combating terrorism and managing the economy than Mrs Clinton, enjoying double-digit leads in both areas.
The booing was so intense the Trump campaign encouraged its many staffers on the convention floor to try to calm the delegates down, said a Trump aide speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal campaign discussions.
The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image.
More than a half of respondents (52 percent) say Trump has no bad intentions and is running for the presidency for the good of the country. Trump is considered to be honest and trustworthy based on the opinion of 43 percent of people, while last week the figure was at 39 percent. And almost half now say he’s in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).
Clinton’s earlier stop had a much more subdued atmosphere.
Clinton has to deal with 68 percent of voters thinking she is dishonest and untrustworthy.
The former secretary of state also critiqued Trump for what she believes is his negative view of the country.
Complicating matters further, some Democratic officials are now claiming the Russian government is responsible for the cybersecurity breach – an alleged attempt by one strongman, Vladimir Putin, to support another, Trump, by sabotaging the Democratic convention.
Trump and Pence were given a rousing cheer and standing ovation as they entered the same hall where Hillary Clinton spoke to the VFW on Monday.
Trump’s lead in one-on-one competition with Clinton is the result of a six-point bump that seems to be the result of his campaign’s performance at the RNC.
“Our candidates for state office and county office will start with a substantially better position in terms of the popularity at the top of the ticket”, said former Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, a national committeeman and superdelegate. And most came away feeling ready to decide about Trump’s fitness for the job: 78 per cent say they already know enough to know whether he’d be a good president. What do they think they are building, and what goal do they imagine themselves to be making more real?
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Post-convention popularity bounces have occurred in previous election cycles, too – and they’re not always sustained. The Republican will need to increase his current lead of 0.3 points if he wants to secure this important win. As Sanders suggested, the thing these dead-enders are most actively promoting is not revolution or equality or justice, but President Trump.
