But Trump’s personal attributes have improved slightly. But one method to measure the convention bounce is to look at FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election held today.
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Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who lost her legs in combat, took on Trump’s readiness to be commander in chief, saying “I didn’t put my life on the line to defend our democracy so you could invite Russian Federation to interfere with it”.
The survey’s 4 percent margin of error means the candidates are neck-and-neck.
But the new polls don’t just show Trump’s stock rising (however temporarily that may be); they also have some very bad news for Hillary Clinton and her already-declining personal image. Nearly 6 in 10 (58 per cent) said the Republican convention spent too much time attacking Democrats, and 18 per cent called Trump’s speech “terrible”.
“Heading into Cleveland last week, Clinton lead Trump by about three points in the polling average”, Silver sadi.
The poll also revealed that Trump now has 85 percent of self-identified GOP voters backing him, up from 79 percent prior to the GOP convention. His support among conservatives has grown; Trump gets the backing of 72 percent of conservatives now, up from 66 percent. (Interestingly, as the WikiLeaks e-mails reveal, the “campaign is a mess” trope is one that the Democratic National Committee wanted to spread about Bernie Sanders.) Melania Trump’s “plagiarism”, roughly 23 words, apparently lifted accidentally from a Michelle Obama speech, dominated coverage of her speech.
President Barack Obama speaks during the third day session of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Wednesday, July 27, 2016.
In the weeks leading up to the Democratic and Republican national conventions, women were far less likely than men to say they supported Donald Trump.
In the four-way poll, which included Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson (9 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (3 percent), Trump lead Clinton with 44 percent to 39 percent.
Georgia-the newest poll out this week, which is the first in almost two months, shows Trump’s lead has shrunk a little, from three points to two. Before the RNC, just 31% of independents were backing Trump, while Hillary Clinton was relying on 34%. The attention is turning to the other side, and within a few days it could be Clinton’s turn to get a convention bump in the polls. Donald Trump has flummoxed establishment lane Republicans, like John Kasich, and the Beltway media crowd by consistently turning their dire predictions of his demise into higher ratings and more votes.
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The poll was conducted online in English with about 1,000 likely voters.
