OH and Florida are both looking like close races in this year’s presidential election, according to new polling released Wednesday that gives Donald Trump the edge in both states.
Advertisement
When third-party candidates were included in Wednesday’s poll, Clinton and Trump were separated by just 2 points, which is within the margin of error.
Trump loyalists say they have a deliberate strategy and far-reaching footprint to counter the Clinton behemoth, even if his apparatus doesn’t measure up in campaign offices, staff and paid advertising.
Arceneaux, the Clinton strategist, questions whether the overall Republican effort can identify and mobilize voters beyond those who identify themselves as eager supporters, given fewer employees and Trump’s late effort.
Trump’s lead in Florida and OH in these polls comes amid backlash Clinton has faced for calling some of Trump’s supporters “a basket of deplorables” – a remark for which she has since apologized – and renewed concerns about her health following Sunday’s incident when she was seen stumbling into her convoy as she left a 9/11 memorial in NY after feeling unwell. That’s a drop for Clinton since last month but what is perhaps more interesting is that more than half of the supporters for each candidate aren’t even casting their votes because they like the candidates. In Ohio, Clinton has a 47-36 percent edge among the college educated, according to a Monmouth University poll in August.
In Ohio, recent polls have shown everything from a 7-point Clinton lead to a 5-point Trump advantage, but four of the five newest surveys give the edge to Trump. Among registered voters, Rubio led 51 percent to 45 percent. But they aren’t – a victory in OH means a victory in Florida is more likely as well.
“It’s awesome how few Trump supporters I’ve run into”, said James King, a partner in a prominent Columbus law firm who backed Romney in 2012 but who likely will vote for Clinton.
Indeed, Trump’s unfavorable ratings have gone up among college educated whites. This year’s electoral college map certainly suggests she can, assuming the Democrat can win Virginia and North Carolina, and hang on to other traditionally blue states.
In both states, the Senate races break in favor of the Republican incumbents, with Rubio topping Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by a 54% to 43% margin among likely voters, and Rob Portman well ahead of former Gov. Ted Strickland, 58% to 37% among those most likely to turn out in November.
Advertisement
The Bloomberg poll was conducted September 9-12 using phone interviews with 802 likely OH voters. It was based on interviews with 802 OH residents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
