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Trump vs. Clinton: Could the polls be wrong?

Donald Trump holds a 5 percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in OH, according to the latest Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll. It said Clinton’s lead was up from 3 points in the previous day’s poll but still “within the range of sampling error”. Libertarian Gary Johnson has five per cent and Green Jill Stein has four.

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In short, the emails were not among those that were previously disclosed and they were relevant.

Comey disclosed that the Federal Bureau of Investigation was looking at emails as part of a probe into Clinton’s use of a private email system while secretary of state, without describing the emails’ content or how long the inquiry might take.

In Florida, votes are pouring in from Miami-Dade county, and the Clinton campaign is boasting that many are from Hispanics thought unlikely to turn out (and therefore don’t show up on likely voter surveys).

The FBI operates on “concrete decisions” and not on incomplete information or leaks, U.S. President Barack Obama has said as he spoke for the first time on the reopened investigation against presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s alleged email scandal by the country’s top domestic intelligence agency. Johnson got 5 percent of the vote in the OH survey.

An average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics website showed Clinton ahead by 1.7 percentage points on Thursday, well down from the solid lead she had until late last month.

Comey announced in a letter to Congress last week that potentially new Clinton emails were found while the FBI investigated Weiner’s alleged sexting with a minor, as his wife is a top Clinton aid. Clinton’s comments about politicians’ agendas bothered 41 percent of voters a lot, while Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns bothered 42 percent a lot.

Should Clinton deprive Trump of Ohio, North Carolina or Florida, she will likely make it all but impossible for Trump to amass 270 electoral votes.

Franklin said a notably low level of all voters polled, less than 40 percent, said they are very confident presidential votes will be accurately counted. But this year, Clinton holds an 8-point lead with the group.

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One persistent break from 2012 voting patterns is the divide among whites by educational attainment. “The Buckeye state is full of those who feel they have lost their jobs because of unfair trade treaties, and non-college educated whites”, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. The blunt assessment foreshadowed the dramatic tension that has escalated between Comey and the Democratic presidential candidate in the final days before the election.

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