Australia’s parliament voted down a labour reform bill on Monday, handing conservative Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull the excuse he has sought to dissolve both houses and hold a general election in July.
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But the key to Mr Turnbull’s thinking on a double dissolution election will come after the May 3 budget.
The impression being created is of ongoing discussion about whether the poll will be a double dissolution, or merely a regular half-Senate election at a later date during August or September.
Despite the dissatisfaction with the government, Australian voters are still warmer on Turnbull than Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
While it is regrettable that those bills are unlikely to pass, Australia can benefit through a double dissolution election.
If the abolition bill isn’t passed in the upper house, the government’s back-up plan is to freeze a minimum pay rate decision for owner-drivers, which the Coalition says puts 35,000 businesses at risk.
“My intention is after the budget, an appropriate time after the budget has been delivered, I will be asking the Governor-General to dissolve both houses of the parliament for an election, which I expect to be held on the second of July”, he told reporters in Canberra.
Among the few bright spots for Mr Turnbull ahead of his high-stakes gamble of either forcing the Senate cross-bench to support his building industry watchdog, the ABCC, or face a double dissolution election, is Labor’s poor primary vote.
Labor has done well to release policies and highlight the government’s flawed rejection of a banking royal commission.
When Turnbull recalled parliament last month from a seven-week recess, it was only the fourth time in more than 50 years a government has used that measure.
Cabinet colleague Mitch Fifield said the July 2 timeline for election was well known.
Mr Shorten told his Labor colleagues at a caucus meeting on Tuesday that while they were the underdogs heading into an election campaign, they could win.
“We haven’t finished outlining how we’ll do budget fix”, he said.
Pollster Jessica Elgood said the result was still a good one for Mr Turnbull because Mr Shorten’s own numbers had hardly moved “and would need to improve significantly to give him a chance of being prime minister”.
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“If certain parties control the Senate, that’s fine, we just want the same government and the same prime minister”.
