It looks like Obamacare enrollment is hitting a wall. HuffPo goes on, explaining that many previous “enrollees” who selected plans didn’t follow through with payments, while others were dropped due to ineligibility: Attrition on the health insurance exchange has been a factor. CBO has estimated that 12 million people will be enrolled this year, well above the actual figure.
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For the first time, re-enrollment will account for most of those signing up in this enrollment period – between 7.3 million and 8.8 million – which ends January 31, 2016, said Lori Lodes, communication director for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
There will also be at least one new player in the Texas health plan market, Oscar Health Insurance, which is entering the Dallas-Forth Worth and San Antonio regions.
The slowing projected rate of sign-ups has raised questions about how many more enrollees are coming in future years.
About 17.6 million Americans have gained coverage under the ACA, according to HHS.
But administration officials said that estimate was based on assumptions that proved to be invalid. It stated that enrollment, originally pegged to reach 24 million within several years, is not plateauing, but instead is on “a much longer path towards equilibrium”.
“We’re starting this year with significantly fewer” eligible people, she said.
Let’s also not forget that part of why a few Americans purchased ObamaCare is because they found themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place this tax season.
Exchange enrollment at year-end 2016 of 10 million individuals “is a strong and realistic goal”, HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell said in a statement accompanying the report. “We’ve seen high levels of satisfaction with the Marketplace and expect the majority of our current customers will reenroll”. “But we’re getting closer to that goal”.
“For instance, we’re going to be talking a lot about financial assistance, since we know costs are on our customers’ minds”, Burwell said. The penalty for not having insurance next year jumps to $695 per person or 2.5% of household income, whichever is higher. Those tax penalties kicked in this year if you had no coverage last year.
While it is not possible to determine from the data the subsequent coverage status of individuals who lost group coverage, there are four possibilities: (1) some obtained replacement individual-market coverage (either on or off the exchanges); (2) some enrolled in Medicaid; (3) some enrolled in other coverage for which they are eligible (such as a plan offered by their new employer, a spouse’s plan, a parent’s policy, or Medicare); and (4) some became uninsured. ASPE also expects 900,000 to 1.5 million individuals who are now insured on the individual market outside the Marketplace will select a Marketplace plan in 2016.
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The difference between the HHS and CBO estimates comes down to the CBO assuming more employers would have stopped offering benefits by now in favor of sending employees to the exchanges, Richard Frank, HHS assistant secretary for planning and evaluation, announced on a media conference call.
