In 1975, in response to the Arab oil embargo, Congress prohibited the export of domestically produced crude oil. Oil Change International wrote the first report on the risk of lifting the crude export ban way back in 2013, and projected the increase in the price of oil in the U.S. that would result.
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But it is possible that a surplus of domestic crude and big discounts could re-emerge in the future if oil prices eventually increase and shale production begins to rise again.
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Most experts don’t believe overturning the export ban will significantly move oil prices, which remain at their lowest levels in years.
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The bill, posted early on Wednesday morning, allows the USA president to stop oil exports for one year if he or she declares a national emergency, or if the administration decides that the exports are causing a domestic oil shortage or raising US oil prices.
John Waters, executive director of the Carlsbad Department of Development, said that if the spending bill was passed and the export ban was lifted then it would mean huge things for the economy in Eddy County.
“Who do countries want to buy oil from?” he asked, “the US or Russian Federation?” Those oil ports, where almost a third of US refineries are located, are for now geared toward unloading crude from tankers, not loading them.
The United States today lifted a 40-year-old ban on export of oil, thus paving the way for energy deficient countries like India to open up another frontier to import oil from a distant friendly nation. “The oil export part of it is great, it’s good for Americans, it’s good for the oil industry, it’s good for the world”, he said.
Still, environmental groups worry that the rush by USA energy companies to supply the world with crude will lead to more local pollution and higher global emissions. West Texas Intermediate crude was selling for less than $37 a barrel Wednesday, down from more $100 a year ago.
The decision, however, has yet to be passed by the US Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama.
The same low prices that generated momentum for lifting the ban could reduce its short-term economic impact, however, because the global market is saturated and US oil companies have already slowed drilling in response.
The bulk of USA oil comes from shale producers. Transportation costs may make it uneconomic to ship the crude to refineries outside the USA, according to analysts from groups including Energy Aspects Ltd. and Morgan Stanley. This despite the fact that a September 2014 poll for voters show a 68% support from Americans for keeping oil in the US.
Four U.S. independent refiners, three of which operate on the East Coast, have opposed exporting domestic crude. The figure is $500 million above a 10-year average for snuffing out wildfires.
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They pushed hard this month to safeguard the Investment Tax Credit for the industry, which they say has underpinned an annual growth rate of 76 percent in solar installations over the last decade.
