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UK retail spending in surprise jump after Brexit vote

Labour Market figures released today by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show the employment rate from the period of April to June 2016 was 74.5%, the highest since records began in 1971.

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Experts are meanwhile expecting a tougher economic climate for Britain in the months ahead.

Retail sales volumes surged 1.4pc in July compared with June, and was up 5.9pc compared with the same period previous year.

Non-specialized shops increased sales by 3.9 percent, the most since December 2013.

Joe Grice, chief economist at the ONS, said, “These are strong numbers showing a pronounced increase in sales compared with last July”.

The positive news sent sterling up sharply up against the dollar to a two week high of $1.3162.

Earlier this week, British multinational retailing company Kingfisher said it had not seen any impact on business following the vote, with sales up in the last three months, Reuters reported. However, the plunge of the national currency reduced the spending power of households, increasing some inflation pressures.

“That being the case, retailers will be hoping that the current good weather holds, and that the feel-good factor being created by the Olympics translates to further spending on food and drink and Games-related merchandise”.

The released sales data will add to the pool of economic releases and reports that have dropped since the United Kingdom referendum and do not yet offer a definitive projection for how the United Kingdom economy will be affected by the shocking outcome of the Brexit vote.

It appreciated 0.5 per cent to 86.16 pence per euro, having reached 87.25 on August 16th, the weakest level in three years.

“Clearly, these unemployment figures relate to a period prior to the European Union referendum vote and the outlook and pressures on businesses have changed since then”.

Ruth Gregory, a United Kingdom economist at Capital Economics, wasn’t surprised by the relative resilience in spending given the fundamentals – such as low interest rates, inflation and a strong jobs market – remain supportive.

Samuel Tombs of Panetheon Economics warned: “sharp price falls have boost retail sales volumes”.

Analyst Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said “it remains likely that softening economic activity and heightened uncertainty will take a toll on the labor market in the coming months”.

In the same period, average weekly earnings rose 2.4 percent, meeting estimates.

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Inflation and jobs data this week have also shown a surprisingly robust picture of the United Kingdom economy.

Consumers do not appear to have been turned off spending by the historic Brexit vote