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United Kingdom house prices to fall on European Union vote: surveyors

The report said surveyors put forward several suggestions for the waning appetite from buyers, “with uncertainty over the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union by far the most prevalent suggestion”. Chancellor George Osborne last month warned that house prices could decline more than 10% if Britain votes to leave.

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Members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) who work in estate agents said London and East Anglia would be most affected.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said a short-term dip in house prices is expected over the coming few months.

The RICS UK residential market survey found a net balance of 13 per cent more chartered surveyors reporting a fall in demand while an overall balance of eight per cent reported sales had tailed off in May. Analysts had expected +35%. Rics said this represented the most widespread decline since the survey started in April 1999.

Buyer demand dropped across the United Kingdom for the second consecutive month in May and at the fastest pace since 2008, with 33% more property professionals saying that demand decreased last month.

A net balance (-11 percent) of Welsh surveyors said that new buyer enquiries fell last month.

The survey found that in the longer term house prices were thought likely to regain momentum, with surveyors predicting increases of 4.1% a year for the next five years.

‘We have also been seeing a similar slowdown in the commercial property market. However, the market will continue after June 23rd and supply and demand coupled with the ease of accessing funds will prevail.

While the rest of the United Kingdom showed small price rises last month, RICS’ poll suggests that this trend is likely to end, with 10% more property professionals predicting that prices will fall rather than rise over the next three months.

Agreed sales also decreased for the second consecutive month with a net balance of 22 per cent of contributors reporting a fall rather than a rise in activity.

The average home in Greater London – which includes areas like Kingston and Croydon in the south, and Uxbridge in the north – is now worth £600,076, according to an analysis of the latest Land Registry data by property-focused asset manager London Central Portfolio.

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“This said, assuming interest rates remain low, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the capital mean that we do not anticipate price correction”.

UK house prices set to fall, says RICS