The existing policies and strong engagement by nations that submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) ahead of Paris climate meeting will limit anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 2030. By 2030 the INDC pledges will cut 11GT of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, 12GT short of what is needed to give the world a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to two degrees, it calculates, further fuelling fears any Paris agreement will struggle to tackle escalating climate risks.
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The voluntary targets “are not sufficient to limit global temperature rise to the recommended level of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) this century”, UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said in a statement.
Other scientific estimates have varied between 2.7C and 3.5C.
Without the INDCs, annual greenhouse gas emissions would reach about 60 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – a measure that groups greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide – in 2030.
But in order to not pierce through the 2°C ceiling, total emissions in 2030 should not exceed 42 billion tonnes, according to the UN’s climate science panel.
Amid a rise in extreme weather around the world in recent years, drought is by far the largest climate-related concern among those surveyed, followed by severe events such as floods and intense storms.
The report further said that INDCs will likely have benefits beyond the estimated reductions to GHG emission levels as new climate policies and actions are being galvanized by the process.
However, even if all countries’ conditional and unconditional plans for emission cuts are implemented fully, emissions could rise to 54 billion tonnes in 2030, leaving a gap of 12 billion tonnes, the report said. Ministers would discuss how to share action to tackle climate change beyond 2020 between developed and developing nations, the level of ambition in the deal, actions before 2020, and finance for developing nations, he said.
The ministers will seek to identify areas of possible compromise ahead of the highly-anticipated Paris conference, to be opened by more than 80 heads of state including US President Barack Obama, China’s Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi of India.
Those in Latin American and African countries – places severely affected by rising seas and encroaching deserts linked to climate change – were most concerned.
The UNEP’s emissions gap report by a team of scientists and modelling experts from around the world is an assessment of the 119 INDCs submitted by 1 October 2015, covering 146 countries and up to 88% of global GHG emissions in 2012.
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The UN Green Climate Fund said today it had approved US$168 million (RM721.8 million) the first funds to be made available “for projects in Africa, Asia and South America to help poor nations adapt to climate impacts already visible or in the pipeline”.
