“North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are not imaginary threats any longer, but they’re now becoming real threats”, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said of the launch.
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Joseph S. Bermudez, a military analyst affiliated with the Washington-based U.S. -Korea Institute at SAIS, said this week’s test showed that North Korea remains strongly committed to the long-term development of an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and is learning from its previous successes and failures.
Considering that the North only publicizes missile launches that have succeeded, the North’s wide coverage of Wednesday launch shows Pyongyang’s satisfaction with the test, an assessment shared by military experts.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hailed the latest test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile as the “success of all successes”, state media said Thursday, as the United Nations gears up to condemn the event that would likely beef up the country’s nuclear capabilities.
Japan said the missile reached its air defence identification zone (ADIZ), the first time for a North Korean missile.
“The enemy has always launched provocations in a manner that is hard for us to predict”, added Jung, and specifically placed anti-submarine units on high alert.
The test launch is believed to be part of North Korea’s SLBM development project, which North Korea has pushed ahead with during a time of faltering cooperation between its neighbors in Northeast Asia because of the conflict over the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system.
The launch coincided with the start of annual drills between the South Korean and American militaries, exercises that always elicit an angry reaction from the North, which views them as a pretext for an invasion.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un waves to those involved in a missile test-fire.
North Koreans are also quick to point out that, although their country has received military assistance in the past from the Soviet Union and China, which helped it stave off the USA during the 1950-53 Korean War, it no longer has any foreign troops based on its soil.
The Korean Central News Agency said Kim watched from an observation post as the test-firing happened, which the news agency said was carried out without “any adverse impact” on neighboring countries.
The North has attempted two such launches before, but neither was seen as successful by outside experts. If the launch tube had been lowered to the ordinary angle, the missile could presumably have flown for more than 1,000 km.
The South Korean military has predicted that it would take North Korea between two and three years to produce a deployable SLBM. Amid the increasing likelihood of North Korea’s SLBMs becoming a real threat, the controversy about the military efficacy of deploying THAAD with United States forces in South Korea is expected to be reignited. In order for an SLBM to succeed, a missile is required to have a range of 300 kilometers, a requirement the North surpassed by 200 kilometers Wednesday.
Takesada said North Korea needs to have at least four SLBM-armed submarines to successfully deploy SLBMs.
If a North Korean submarine launches a ballistic missile to South Korea’s rear – in distant waters in the East Sea or South Sea, for example – it probably could not be shot down by THAAD interceptors. The report by 38 North said the hermit kingdom could still face significant technological challenges, such as building a new class submarine to carry the missile.
North Korea has conducted a spate of military technology tests this year, including a fourth nuclear test in January and numerous ballistic missile launches.
The UN Security Council agreed on Wednesday that an emergency meeting should be called to consider a statement on North Korea’s missile activity. “The most they could do is probably launch guerilla-like attacks for now”, he said.
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South Korean military concluded that it reached an altitude of 500 kilometers, about 350 kilometers higher than the normal altitude of 150 kilometers.
