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US crude briefly rises to premium over Brent
Pumpjacks are seen in Lagunillas, Ciudad Ojeda, in Lake Maracaibo in the state of Zulia, Venezuela December 22, 2015.
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Oil prices rose slightly today with Brent prices bouncing back from 11-year lows caused largely by a global oversupply of crude.
With Brent LCOc1 at $36.29 per barrel, this flipped WTI from a long-standing discount into a slight premium over the worldwide benchmark for the first time since a brief period in November 2014 and, before that, since 2010.
Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were trading at $36.33 per barrel at 0220 GMT, up 19 cents from their last settlement.
Latest signals from the global oil market have raised another planning hurdle for Nigeria’s Budget and National Planning Ministry with Brent crude price slumping to its lowest ebb since mid-2004 at $36.17 a barrel on Monday.
The prospect of USA shale producers expanding into new foreign markets as the country is flushed with excess oil has raised hopes for higher prices.
Analysts warned oil could be vulnerable ahead of a weekly petroleum inventory release on Wednesday by the US Department of Energy.
Oil prices edged away from multi-year lows on Tuesday as the northern hemisphere moves into the peak-demand winter season, but mild weather and ballooning supplies mean that prices are expected to remain generally low well into 2016.
John Kilduff, a founding partner at Again Capital, said the push of WTI above Brent could mark a “new phase” between the two contracts in the wake of last week’s measure passed by the US Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama to lift a 40-year ban on US oil exports.
“We see risks to our OPEC production forecast of 32 million bpd next year as skewed to the upside (and) storage continues to fill with the potential for hitting storage constraints by the spring rising”, Goldman Sachs said this week, adding that USA drilling activity also remained too high for a significant production cut.
However, Jan Stuart and his team at Credit Suisse this morning told clients in a research report that if oil prices fall below a certain line, then it makes it highly likely that prices will crash further to around $20 per barrel.
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Global production now exceeds demand by between 0.5 million and 2 million barrels per day, based on analyst estimates.