World corn stocks were also bearish with a 5 million metric ton increase, while soybean carryover globally was down almost 5 million metric tons from July.
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NASS said corn growers are expected to harvest an average of 168.8 bushels per acre, which would be down 2.2 bushels from 2014. The agency estimates 3.75 million acres will be harvested, but higher yields will more than make up for the fewer acres. However, despite crop conditions remaining steady throughout July, keep in mind that this is the first survey based yield results which will likely render an adjustment from the forecast given to us by the USDA in July. The Los Alamos, N.M.-based company, founded by a theoretical physicist, predicted output of 13.34 billion bushels, compared with the USDA’s estimate last month of 13.53 billion. As of August 2, 70 percent of U.S. corn was reported to be in good or excellent condition, three percentage points below the same time past year.
Corn yields in Kansas are forecast at 152 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from a year ago. The USDA on Wednesday will release adjusted acreage estimates after resurveying soybean growers in affected states. That is especially true for the soybean crop, which undergoes its critical growth stage later in the season than corn.
The department now expect the season average farm price for wheat to be between $465 and $5.55 a bushel – down 10 cents on the low and and 20 cents on the high end. Most-actively traded November futures shed 59 3/4 cents, or 6.1%, to $9.21 1/2 a bushel.
Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised this month with a 5.1-million-ton increase for corn mostly on higher stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. It pegged U.S. corn stockpiles then at 1.7 billion bushels, higher than analysts’ expectations for about 1.4 billion.
The USDA reduced estimates for U.S. soybean exports in the 2015-16 crop year by 50 million bushels, and dialed down expectations for corn and wheat exports by 25 million bushels each. “Too much rain hides the yield losses much longer than a drought because the crops still look green”.
Jack Scoville of the PRICE Futures Group analyzed what he called a “smoking” report for the Minneapolis Grain Exchange crop call.
The wheat ending stocks were fairly neutral at 850 million bushels, just a slight increase from July. That figure is up from the 209.7 million metric tons forecast for a year earlier. Area for harvest in the U.S.is forecast at a record 83.5 million acres, down 1% from June but up almost 1% from 2014.
“The bottom line is that yields will be off and we’ll see a lot of variability across the state”, said Akridge, who moderated a panel of experts analyzing the USDA’s August Crop Production Report at the Indiana State Fairgrounds.
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Jacob Bunge contributed to this article.
