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What’s the Impact of a Fall in Crude Oil Inventories?

Oil prices have continued to rise in Asian markets following the announcement of a sudden decline in United States crude inventories on Xmas eve.

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Front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $37.72 per barrel at 0621 GMT, up 22 cents on the day and set for the biggest weekly gain since early October. The spread further widened in WTI’s favor Wednesday, with the Nymex contract up $1.34, or 3.7%, at $37.48 a barrel, while Brent futures rose $1.18, or 3.3%, to $37.29.


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BIS will shortly be taking steps to amend the Export Administration Regulations to reflect this change. The drawdown of 3.6 MMbbls (million barrels) of crude oil inventories is the biggest drawdown in the past 13 weeks.


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API President and CEO Jack Gerard said the president’s decision to end the ’70s era crude export ban will benefit consumers and enhance our energy security.

But that gap has vanished in recent weeks amid growing evidence that USA production has shifted into reverse this year as plummeting prices caused drilling to dry up, while output overseas is still swelling, with Iran poised to increase sales as sanctions are lifted next year.

Crude oil isn’t the same the world over. “Having the oil export ban lifted permanently, it’s like having 100 Keystone pipelines”, Ryan said.

Despite this week’s bull-run of USA crude, overall market conditions remain weak due to a global overhang in production that sees between 0.5 and 2 million barrels of crude produced every day in excess of demand, and analysts said it would take time for the glut to be worked down.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, said it had shot down a ballistic missile that was heading toward the city of Jizan, where a new refinery and oil terminal are under construction. That, in turn, raises the revenues of crude oil producers as they sell their products at higher prices than before. Brune said that Democrats won a few consolation prices in the budget Obama signed: a 5-year renewal of tax credits for solar and wind-energy projects, and money for a water and land conservation fund. With hungry East Asian energy markets suddenly open to America’s Bakken crude oil, Seattle and other oil-by-rail cities near the Washington coast could become even busier petro-hubs, he warned.

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The prospect of continued low oil prices has led market observers to question how long some producers can survive sub- $40 oil.

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