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Zika epidemic likely to burn itself out in three years
All previously reported cases of sexually transmitted Zika infection have involved men spreading the virus to their sex partners.
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The scientists, from the Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial, calculated that the epidemic, which began in Brazil in 2015, would burn itself out within three years.
Professor Ferguson also told The Guardian that the estimate includes the year or so of high transmission we have already seen.
However, any efforts to slow spread of the virus may in fact prolong the current epidemic, the researchers warned. But health officials are particularly concerned about pregnant mothers and women who might become pregnant because the virus can cause serious birth defects, including microcephaly, which is characterized by small heads and brain damage in newborns.
Zika’s most common symptoms are fever, rash, joint pain and conjunctivitis.
While it’s possible Zika cases will pick up again when spring returns, Ferguson said infections are unlikely to be as numerous as when the virus first hit Brazil.
“Also, efforts to contain the epidemic would have needed to have been implemented much earlier in the current zika epidemic to have a major effect”.
According to the C.D.C., aerial spraying is a safe and proven approach to tackle mosquitoes that transmit diseases, such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya.
For the study, the team collated all existing data for Zika transmission across Latin America.
So far, there have been more than a thousand cases of Zika in the United States, and that number is expected to grow.
Officials from the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA), the Virginia Department of Health (VDH), and Virginia Commonwealth University Health System presented ways to prevent Zika transmission, how to respond to potentially contracting the virus, and the ongoing coordination between public health officials and private providers to safeguard the public.
The virus, though first discovered in 1947, largely took public health officials by surprise when it began spreading through the Americas a year ago and causing birth defects. They came up with two main theories that could help explain why Zika has become such a risk.
“We have been completely unable to stop its spread. By the time we realized the scale of the problem, it was too late”, he added. “This study represents another example of the rapid pathway established at Humabs for the isolation and characterization of large numbers of antibodies directed against infectious agents and for the development of the best in class antibodies as potential new therapies against emerging pathogens”, said Filippo Riva, CEO of Humabs.
This Q&A will tell you what you need to know about Zika.
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There is now no vaccine or cure for Zika. The addition of mosquito testing allows the lab to provide state health officials with even more information to quickly respond when local transmission is detected.